Setelah market closed, FED menaikkan discount rate dari 0.5% menjadi 0.75%. Sementara orang memperkirakan bursa saham akan terimbas akibat kenaikan discount rate ini.
Saya pribadi melihat kenaikan ini mempunyai dasar pertimbangan karena ekonomi AS mulai menunjukkan pemulihan sementara level discount rate yang berlaku sekarang memang sudah sangat terlalu amat rendahnya (saya pakai bahasa hiperbola), sehingga perlu dilakukan penyesuaian. Saya perkirakan sampai akhir tahun ini atau awal tahun depan, discount rate AS akan bertahap menuju level 3.0%, level yang wajar normal diberlakukan FED dalam menjaga pertumbuhan tetap berjalan normal.
Karena itu saya memperkirakan bisa saja dalam waktu harian (sesaat), bursa saham akan terkoreksi akibat kenaikan ini, sebelum nantinya akan kembali melanjutkan pergerakan bullishnya.
Sejarah bursa sudah menunjukkan beberapa kali kejadian dimana saat suku bunga mulai dinaikan karena ekonomi bertumbuh, bursa saham malah melanjutkan kenaikan. Sebaliknya, saat suku bunga mulai diturunkan karena ekonomi mulai menurun, bursa saham malah turun.
Warren Buffet pernah berkomentar seperti ini, "If a business does well, the stock eventually follows."
jabat erat,
Irwan Ariston Napitupulu
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